Wider predictions for Vision Pro sales have varied significantly, and it’s difficult to point to a consensus on market expectations. According to an Ars Technica report in June 2023, Wedbush Securities forecast around 150,000 units in the first year of sales; Morgan Stanley expected sales of around 850,000; and Goldman Sachs predicted sales as high as 5 million.
It was rumored that Apple initially hoped to sell 1 million of the devices in the first year on sale, according to a Financial Times report in 2023; that expectation was later revised down due to production issues.
Morgan Stanley analysts predicted in January that Apple would ship between 300,000 and 400,000 headsets in 2024, according to a CNBC report, while a Wedbush analyst put the figure at 600,000 units for the year, according to Business Insider.
Kuo himself forecast sales of around 500,000 units for 2024, according to a January blog post.
What seems clear is that the Vision Pro will make up a relatively small part of the total market for AR/VR devices, which remains a niche product category.
While the first-generation device is powerful and impressive, said Ramon Llamas, research director with IDC’s devices and displays team, consumers still need to be convinced of its value and utility.
